Strategic Assessment Report on the Political Situation in the United States of America : December 2025
This report provides a strategic assessment of the political, institutional, social, and security-related developments within the United States of America, as well as their implications for the European Union’s strategic autonomy. Given the rapid transformations in the international environment, it is essential for the EU to evaluate the stability, reliability, and global projection capacity of its traditional partner.
The following analysis does not constitute a rejection of the transatlantic partnership but rather an objective evaluation of contemporary dynamics affecting U.S. governance and its capacity to sustain global leadership.
The United States is undergoing a phase of profound political fragmentation. Partisan polarization has reached levels unprecedented among advanced democracies. The bipartisan consensus that underpinned American institutional stability since 1945 has eroded to the point of jeopardizing continuity in key public policies.
Distrust toward federal institutions has become structural. Repeated crises surrounding the 2020 and 2024 electoral results, along with attempts to instrumentalize the judiciary and administrative branches, have weakened public confidence in the rule of law. A significant segment of the population no longer universally recognizes the federal government as the guarantor of democratic processes.
Europe also observes frequent budgetary impasses, threats of technical default, and institutional gridlock, all of which undermine Washington’s ability to ensure coherent strategic planning.
Serious concerns are emerging regarding the politicization of key institutions. Public statements and initiatives targeting the Department of Justice, pressures on judicial officials, and attempts to leverage federal agencies against political opponents raise questions about the resilience of American democracy.
The functioning of the rule of law—as promoted by the United States on the international stage—appears increasingly fragile due to rising public attacks against federal judges, prosecutors, and oversight bodies. These dynamics risk undermining Washington’s international credibility in defending democratic norms.
Levels of internal violence remain exceptionally high. The United States accounts for nearly all mass shootings recorded in high-income countries. The circulation of several hundred million firearms complicates public order management and exposes American society to systemic risks.
Community fragmentation is intensifying. Racial, economic, geographic, and cultural divides have deepened to a point that increasingly constrains national cohesion. Social indicators—particularly life expectancy, infant mortality, and access to healthcare—reflect a trajectory that lags behind most European countries.
This internal vulnerability constitutes a structural weakening factor for Washington’s international role.
The U.S. media ecosystem is characterized by extreme polarization and a concentration of private actors wielding political influence unmatched in the European Union. The strategic use of 24-hour news channels, the proliferation of conspiracy-driven content, and growing dependence on digital platforms further fragment the public sphere.
The direct involvement of major economic figures in shaping political agendas raises legitimate concerns. The capacity of private actors to alter access to communication infrastructures or decisively influence sensitive diplomatic debates creates a structural vulnerability for U.S. allies.
The report notes that several non-institutional U.S. actors regularly intervene in European affairs. Certain political figures or members of presidential families—without official mandates—have engaged in hostile campaigns targeting European governments, EU institutions, or partner states. Influential economic actors who control critical digital infrastructures have issued direct injunctions to European leaders.
These practices deviate from established norms of conduct among strategic partners and raise growing concerns about the United States’ willingness to respect European political processes.
The United States remains a leading military power. However, domestic debates over Washington’s international engagement, abrupt doctrinal shifts between administrations, and recurring questioning of alliance commitments cast doubt on the predictability of U.S. foreign policy.
Europe must acknowledge that American strategic continuity can no longer be taken for granted. This doctrinal instability limits European partners’ ability to plan within a stable transatlantic framework.
Despite extraordinary strengths, the U.S. economy exhibits significant vulnerabilities. America remains heavily dependent on foreign supply chains for pharmaceuticals, electronic components, batteries, and critical raw materials.
Public debt has reached levels that raise questions about the federal government’s fiscal trajectory. While the economic system remains robust, structural imbalances persist. Growth concentrated in a few tech sectors masks increasing fragility among middle-class households.
An analysis of U.S. trends reveals a significant shift: American public opinion shows growing reluctance toward heavy international commitments. Partisan alternation leads to strategic reversals that may undermine Washington’s long-term credibility.
The international perception of U.S. influence is increasingly shaped by these internal dynamics. Europe must prepare for a global environment in which the United States exercises a more discontinuous, domestically conditioned form of leadership.
The European Union remains committed to the transatlantic partnership. However, evolving dynamics within the United States necessitate a reassessment of the need for enhanced European strategic autonomy in defense, technology, energy, and economic security.
It is recommended that the EU further develop its own capabilities to ensure resilience in the face of U.S.-related uncertainties. The objective is not to replace the transatlantic partnership but to strengthen Europe’s capacity to act autonomously when the stability or reliability of U.S. commitments cannot be assured.
An analysis of internal U.S. dynamics reveals a set of structural vulnerabilities likely to durably reshape Washington’s role in the international order. The European Union does not question the fundamental value of the transatlantic partnership but must recognize that recent U.S. trajectories carry uncertainties requiring clear-eyed assessment and a reinforced European strategic autonomy.